The average daily sunspot numbers this week were about the same as last week, while the average daily solar flux declined a little more than eight points to 128.9. Geomagnetic indicators were quiet. The average daily sunspot numbers of 95.3 for the week is considerably below the average for the previous 90 days, which was 120.8. Sunspot numbers for December 15-21 were 44, 60, 95, 103, 133, 139 and 93, with a mean of 95.3. The 10.7 cm flux was 124.2, 121, 119.6, 127.4, 128.2, 137.4 and 144.5, with a mean of 128.9. The estimated planetary A indices were 0, 0, 0, 1, 4, 3 and 3, with a mean of 1.6. The estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 2, 3, 6, 5 and 5, with a mean of 3.6.
The solar flux has been climbing over the past week, after a low of 119.6 on December 17. The predicted flux values for the near term are 145 on December 23, 140 on December 24-27, 145 on December 28-30, then dropping suddenly to 120 on December 31-January 2, 125 on January 3-4, 128 on January 5-8, and then peaking at 130 on January 9-17. The predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 23 through January 4, 8 on January 5-6, and 5 on January 7-21. This is from NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Space Weather Operations. There is another opinion, of course: Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions December 23, quiet to unsettled December 24, active conditions December 25, unsettled to active December 26, quiet to unsettled December 27 and quiet again on December 28-29.
Active conditions are quite different from an A index of 5, although the NOAA/USAF outlook is at least eight hours newer than the Prague prediction. But looking back 24 hours earlier to the December 21 prediction, USAF/NOAA has nothing different on December 25, although they do show an A index of 8 on December 29. You can check here for the latest prediction, which is updated daily after 2100.
ARRL Published Date Hits: 299
Category: ARRL
Almost 20 years to the day since the Loma Prieta Earthquake shook California's Bay Area, a wildfire was burning through Santa Cruz County (approximately 75 miles south of San Francisco) just miles from the epicenter of the quake that delayed the 1989 World Series. Just as Amateur Radio operators responded to calls for assistance for the earthquake, 20 years later on October 25, they responded when needed for a 485 acre wildfire.
According to Santa Cruz County ARES® Public Information Officer Bil Conklin, AF6OH, the Santa Cruz County Emergency Operations Center activated Santa Cruz County ARES® to assist with communications support. From 9 AM-2 PM, ARES® team members were in the EOC. They also activated a Loma Prieta ARES® Resource and Information Net on the AE6KE 146.835 repeater.
Just days before the fire began, the area had received more than 10 inches of rain, but it wasn't enough to keep the fire at bay. Early in the morning on October 25, fire crews were dispatched to the summit area of the Santa Cruz Mountains to respond to a wildfire of unknown origin. Lasting for two days, the Loma Fire burned in the same region as the devastating 2008 Summit Fire that charred 4200 acres and destroyed 63 homes and 69 outbuildings. The Summit Fire burned for five days and caused $14.85 million in damage. Cal Fire estimates the cost of battling this fire to be in the neighborhood of $2.5 million.
Conklin told the ARRL that high winds prevented firefighters from using an aerial attack to combat the blaze that began at 3 AM. "Air fire crews had to stand down while they waiting for lower winds," he said. "Firefighters were forced to use hand crews to battle the blaze with lateral hose lays and water tankers supplying water."
Now completely contained, the Loma Fire destroyed one trailer and two outbuildings; four people were injured, including two firefighters. The cause is under investigation, but Battalion Chief Jim Crawford of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) told The Santa Cruz Sentinel that investigators will focus on the activity of inmate crews from the Ben Lomond Conservation Camp who had been working in the fire area as recently as October 23.
Crawford told the newspaper that the heavy rains did not soak trees and brush to the core, but rather drenched the leaves. During the 10 sunny days between the rains and the fire, the foliage dried and strong winds and low humidity made conditions more fire-prone. While the wind died down in mid-afternoon, it kicked up again in late afternoon. "They may have gotten rained on, but the inside part didn't get real moist," he said. "It will take a sustained winter season of rain for large trees and bushes to fully absorb moisture."
The local newspaper, The Santa Cruz Sentinel, invited readers to watch a video of the fire shot by Dan Dawson, KI6ESH.