The average daily sunspot numbers this week were about the same as last week, while the average daily solar flux declined a little more than eight points to 128.9. Geomagnetic indicators were quiet. The average daily sunspot numbers of 95.3 for the week is considerably below the average for the previous 90 days, which was 120.8. Sunspot numbers for December 15-21 were 44, 60, 95, 103, 133, 139 and 93, with a mean of 95.3. The 10.7 cm flux was 124.2, 121, 119.6, 127.4, 128.2, 137.4 and 144.5, with a mean of 128.9. The estimated planetary A indices were 0, 0, 0, 1, 4, 3 and 3, with a mean of 1.6. The estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 2, 3, 6, 5 and 5, with a mean of 3.6.
The solar flux has been climbing over the past week, after a low of 119.6 on December 17. The predicted flux values for the near term are 145 on December 23, 140 on December 24-27, 145 on December 28-30, then dropping suddenly to 120 on December 31-January 2, 125 on January 3-4, 128 on January 5-8, and then peaking at 130 on January 9-17. The predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 23 through January 4, 8 on January 5-6, and 5 on January 7-21. This is from NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Space Weather Operations. There is another opinion, of course: Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions December 23, quiet to unsettled December 24, active conditions December 25, unsettled to active December 26, quiet to unsettled December 27 and quiet again on December 28-29.
Active conditions are quite different from an A index of 5, although the NOAA/USAF outlook is at least eight hours newer than the Prague prediction. But looking back 24 hours earlier to the December 21 prediction, USAF/NOAA has nothing different on December 25, although they do show an A index of 8 on December 29. You can check here for the latest prediction, which is updated daily after 2100.
ARRL Published Date Hits: 296
Category: ARRL
Bob Rogers, KB4PYP, EC of Davidson County, Tennessee, reports that on the weekend of May 1-2, the Office of Emergency Management (OEM) requested ARES® support, with 23 operators responding. Rogers stated that their "SKYWARN net was in standby for most of the day on Saturday as we watched the approaching storms." The OEM went into full activation and Rogers was called in to the "War Room" at 7 PM where he remained until early Sunday morning, when he had to return home to deal with water seeping into his bedroom. The SKYWARN net remained active until the front passed.
By 5 PM on Monday, a Red Cross shelter at Bellevue Middle School had requested an operator to support communications needs as there was a lack of cell phone service. Two operators established communication systems to support the shelter for emergency medical support. The Cross Point Community Church also requested ARES® assistance with distribution of supplies. Seven ARES® members deployed there.
On Tuesday, May 4, Red Cross requested radio communication support for a relocated disaster headquarters at the abandoned Skyline-Madison campus on Neeleys Bend, where 12 ARES® members participated. Communication was established between Red Cross-Charlotte Road office and the Disaster headquarters. A report was sent to the Cheatham County EMA.
Rogers said "while operating our net in support of the Red Cross shelter operation I received a call from an ARES® member in Cheatham County reporting that his neighborhood was isolated by flood waters. He and his neighbors were running out of fresh water and food supplies. I called K1KY on our MTEARS frequency and obtained the phone number of the Cheatham County EMA office and reported to them that 75 people were in need of fresh water and food supplies. Two helicopters were sent with supplies by the afternoon to those stranded people."