The average daily sunspot numbers this week were about the same as last week, while the average daily solar flux declined a little more than eight points to 128.9. Geomagnetic indicators were quiet. The average daily sunspot numbers of 95.3 for the week is considerably below the average for the previous 90 days, which was 120.8. Sunspot numbers for December 15-21 were 44, 60, 95, 103, 133, 139 and 93, with a mean of 95.3. The 10.7 cm flux was 124.2, 121, 119.6, 127.4, 128.2, 137.4 and 144.5, with a mean of 128.9. The estimated planetary A indices were 0, 0, 0, 1, 4, 3 and 3, with a mean of 1.6. The estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 2, 3, 6, 5 and 5, with a mean of 3.6.
The solar flux has been climbing over the past week, after a low of 119.6 on December 17. The predicted flux values for the near term are 145 on December 23, 140 on December 24-27, 145 on December 28-30, then dropping suddenly to 120 on December 31-January 2, 125 on January 3-4, 128 on January 5-8, and then peaking at 130 on January 9-17. The predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 23 through January 4, 8 on January 5-6, and 5 on January 7-21. This is from NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Space Weather Operations. There is another opinion, of course: Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions December 23, quiet to unsettled December 24, active conditions December 25, unsettled to active December 26, quiet to unsettled December 27 and quiet again on December 28-29.
Active conditions are quite different from an A index of 5, although the NOAA/USAF outlook is at least eight hours newer than the Prague prediction. But looking back 24 hours earlier to the December 21 prediction, USAF/NOAA has nothing different on December 25, although they do show an A index of 8 on December 29. You can check here for the latest prediction, which is updated daily after 2100.
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Michael Wright, N4MAW, EC, Wilson County Amateur Radio Emergency Service, responded to the Wilson county, Tennessee, Emergency Management Agency's EOC at 4 AM on Saturday, May 1, upon their request and activation of the EOC Weather Operations Team. Wright brought the EOC's HF station on line and began monitoring the Middle Tennessee Emergency Traffic on 3.980 and 7.232 MHz as well as the local 147.105 MHz repeater and the 443.725 MHz repeater (MTEARS Net). The heavy rains arrived later that afternoon.
At 1:30 PM Wright called for the ARES® net to be convened in an informal mode to begin taking reports on the arriving weather, flooding, road conditions, and to provide updates to the operators monitoring the frequencies. Numerous reports of flooding on local roads as well as I-40 in Wilson County were received.
Dave Bonner, KJ4BLG, was deployed to assess the main ingress/egress routes for Watertown upon the request of Wilson EMA officials. Bonner was able to safely determine that the routes were impassable; Watertown was isolated due to flooding. Bonner also reported that residents were evacuating their homes in Watertown and a shelter was needed. Through his efforts, WEMA officials were able to get the Watertown High School opened up as a shelter for evacuees. Seven radio amateurs in Wilson County checked into the net and provided valuable flooding information to WEMA officials throughout the day.
On Sunday, Tom Parker, KB4SFN, responded to an NWS request, and the ARES® net was again active in support of WEMA and its response to the flooding. Again, numerous reports of flooded roads and isolated subdivisions were received and passed onto WEMA officials. The Watertown Fire and Police repeaters went down and ARES® ops received the report and notified WEMA, Wilson County 911, and the Middle Tennessee Electric utility of the situation. ARES® also prepared to send an operator to the Watertown Police and Fire station in order to assist with getting emergency responders en route to any emergency should the repeaters not come back on line quickly.
Wright also assisted the EOC staff with the receipt of flood reports, shelter information requests, and flood information requests. This included taking non-emergency phone calls and operating their low-band public safety radio when no other personnel were available to do so. These operations lasted until 9 PM Sunday night at which time the ARES® organization secured operations upon full release by WEMA officials. -- Michael Wright, N4MAW, Emergency Coordinator, Wilson County Amateur Radio Emergency Service