The average daily sunspot numbers this week were about the same as last week, while the average daily solar flux declined a little more than eight points to 128.9. Geomagnetic indicators were quiet. The average daily sunspot numbers of 95.3 for the week is considerably below the average for the previous 90 days, which was 120.8. Sunspot numbers for December 15-21 were 44, 60, 95, 103, 133, 139 and 93, with a mean of 95.3. The 10.7 cm flux was 124.2, 121, 119.6, 127.4, 128.2, 137.4 and 144.5, with a mean of 128.9. The estimated planetary A indices were 0, 0, 0, 1, 4, 3 and 3, with a mean of 1.6. The estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 2, 3, 6, 5 and 5, with a mean of 3.6.
The solar flux has been climbing over the past week, after a low of 119.6 on December 17. The predicted flux values for the near term are 145 on December 23, 140 on December 24-27, 145 on December 28-30, then dropping suddenly to 120 on December 31-January 2, 125 on January 3-4, 128 on January 5-8, and then peaking at 130 on January 9-17. The predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 23 through January 4, 8 on January 5-6, and 5 on January 7-21. This is from NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Space Weather Operations. There is another opinion, of course: Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions December 23, quiet to unsettled December 24, active conditions December 25, unsettled to active December 26, quiet to unsettled December 27 and quiet again on December 28-29.
Active conditions are quite different from an A index of 5, although the NOAA/USAF outlook is at least eight hours newer than the Prague prediction. But looking back 24 hours earlier to the December 21 prediction, USAF/NOAA has nothing different on December 25, although they do show an A index of 8 on December 29. You can check here for the latest prediction, which is updated daily after 2100.
Loyd C. Headrick Published Date Hits: 506
Category: ARRL
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| The Alum Cave Bluffs Trail begins as a wooden bridge crossing Walker Camp Prong. [Photo courtesy of Scott Basford] |
On Sunday, March 28 -- a day with a lot of rain, wind, sleet and, fog -- John Oakberg, NK4N, of Sevierville, Tennessee, went out hiking in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park near Mt LeConte. When he was about 1 mile up from Alum Cave Bluff, he came across Judy Potter, 57, of Atlanta who had broken her ankle while on the trail. Oakberg reached for his cell phone to call 911, but there was no coverage available. He then reached for his handheld transceiver and put out a call to any Amateur Radio operators who may be listening via some nearby VHF 2 meter repeaters.
Scott Wyrick, KD4CWB, of Seymour, Tennessee, told the ARRL that he was the first to respond to Oakberg's call. After he obtained the necessary information, Wyrick called the National Park Service dispatcher, requesting that they dispatch a rescue team. "John's signal was noisy into the machines, but two other stations -- Dean Webb, N4NLT, and Cleve Hayes, KB4UAL -- were able to copy him on the input frequencies," he told the ARRL. Wyrick lives in Sevier County, the same county where the National Park is located.
Webb, who was driving across Fort Loudoun Dam in Loudon County -- heard the emergency call calling for assistance on his mobile station on 146.940. "His signal was poor into the repeater and it was very scratchy," he told WATE, a television station in Knoxville, Tennessee. Webb and Hayes quickly set up a radio relay with Wyrick from John Oakberg on the mountain.
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| The Alum Cave Bluffs Trail is a 5.1 mile footpath that gradually ascends approximately 2600 feet to the summit of Mt LeConte in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. [Photo courtesy of Scott Basford] |
Hayes -- who was at his home in Knox County for the relay -- told WATE that he "could relay what [John Oakberg] was saying to Scott, who was on the phone to the National Park Service to get the information that they wanted, such as height, weight, age and does she have any medical issues."
Wyrick told the ARRL that the rescue team was able to reach Potter after a few hours, around 2 PM. They carried her to safety several miles down the mountainside, reaching the staging area set up in the parking lot at the base of the mountain approximately three hours later. Paramedics treated her on the scene, but she refused transport via ambulance and left by private vehicle with her friends who took her to the Sevier County Medical Center for additional treatment. According to WATE, she is scheduled for surgery in Atlanta to pin and plate two broken bones in her left ankle.
"It hit a point where I was just in tears," Potter told WATE. "You can say you're going to be tough and get out of this, but you just get weary. And I think having somebody come an hour or two quicker and being able to get moving helped keep my spirits going. People all over the place that I don't even know helped me. Thank you!" -- Thanks to Scott Wyrick, KD4CWB, and WATE for the information